Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (I, Part 2)

Long-term expectations
After the current negotiations were reviewed, the discussion proceeded to Israel's future. Here, the reporters expectations are chilling. Nearly all of the reporters reported that their close contacts (Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah and the ruling inner-clique in Iran) state that Israel will be "totally annihilated by a nuclear weapon." They personally believe that the State of Israel will be physically destroyed well before January 1, 2020. Many speculated that the attack on Israel will not be launched by Iran, but rather by Egypt or Syria (or even Jordan).

This was mapped out as follows:
1. Iran will continue to develop nuclear weapons, a missile force to deliver these weapons, and nuclear warheads capable of being carried by Iran's currently developed medium range missiles. (Although a recent, publicly released, "consensus" US Intelligence report stated that Iran had halted its nuclear warhead development activities in 2003, the opposition group that had first exposed Iran's previously undetected 18 year clandestine nuclear weapons development program is now reporting that Iran did not stop these developments, but rather that Iran currently has an operating facility near Tehran which is actively developing nuclear missile warheads.)

2. Iran's progress toward developing operating nuclear weapons and means for their delivery will be a lot more rapid than is currently estimated by US intelligence. The reporters pointed out the dismal history of US intelligence in making these kinds of estimates. US intelligence vastly underestimated the technical capabilities of the Soviet Union and they vastly overestimated the time that they thought would be required for the Soviets to successfully complete their atomic bomb as well as their hydrogen bomb programs. US intelligence completely missed Saddam's alternative, pre-1991 nuclear weapons development program. (After they gained access to Iraq, US and international inspectors reported that Saddam had been within six months to one year of obtaining operational nuclear weapons, and they concluded that had Saddam waited to obtain these weapons, his forces would have been unstoppable in Kuwait, and then later in their conquest of Saudi Arabia.) US intelligence had been surprised by the Indian, Pakistani, Libyan and North Korean nuclear programs. Further, my informants emphasized that the help that had been provided by the Kahn network was substantial and effective and that North Korea had provided technical support and on-the-ground assistance for missile development and for nuclear weapons development to both Syria and Iran. "You can't unring the scientific knowledge bell."

3. Iran's nuclear development program will trigger a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East. Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Syria will all begin nuclear weapons development programs. Saudi Arabia will also attempt to obtain nuclear weapons.

4. Islamic fundamentalists, in the name of Islamic religious purity, will seize control of one or more nuclear armed governments in the Middle East and thus, the fundamentalists will obtain access and control of one or more nuclear weapons. Prime candidates for such a seizure of control include Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

5. Most moderate Muslim groups will not resist this fundamentalist seizure of power, but will accept the fundamentalists control of governments and societies.

6. The various extremist groups will compete in burnishing their credentials as the most faithful (extreme) of the "true believers." The ultimate crown of truest believer will be accorded to the group that succeeds in destroying Israel.

7. Muslim casualties that would be caused by their nuclear attack on Israel or that would result from retaliatory attacks by Israel will not in any way deter these fundamentalist groups from attacking and attempting to destroy Israel.

8. There is nothing that Israel can do to avoid this fate. No concessions, no accommodations and no peace agreements will protect Israel.