Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (I, Part 2)

Long-term expectations
After the current negotiations were reviewed, the discussion proceeded to Israel's future. Here, the reporters expectations are chilling. Nearly all of the reporters reported that their close contacts (Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah and the ruling inner-clique in Iran) state that Israel will be "totally annihilated by a nuclear weapon." They personally believe that the State of Israel will be physically destroyed well before January 1, 2020. Many speculated that the attack on Israel will not be launched by Iran, but rather by Egypt or Syria (or even Jordan).

This was mapped out as follows:
1. Iran will continue to develop nuclear weapons, a missile force to deliver these weapons, and nuclear warheads capable of being carried by Iran's currently developed medium range missiles. (Although a recent, publicly released, "consensus" US Intelligence report stated that Iran had halted its nuclear warhead development activities in 2003, the opposition group that had first exposed Iran's previously undetected 18 year clandestine nuclear weapons development program is now reporting that Iran did not stop these developments, but rather that Iran currently has an operating facility near Tehran which is actively developing nuclear missile warheads.)

2. Iran's progress toward developing operating nuclear weapons and means for their delivery will be a lot more rapid than is currently estimated by US intelligence. The reporters pointed out the dismal history of US intelligence in making these kinds of estimates. US intelligence vastly underestimated the technical capabilities of the Soviet Union and they vastly overestimated the time that they thought would be required for the Soviets to successfully complete their atomic bomb as well as their hydrogen bomb programs. US intelligence completely missed Saddam's alternative, pre-1991 nuclear weapons development program. (After they gained access to Iraq, US and international inspectors reported that Saddam had been within six months to one year of obtaining operational nuclear weapons, and they concluded that had Saddam waited to obtain these weapons, his forces would have been unstoppable in Kuwait, and then later in their conquest of Saudi Arabia.) US intelligence had been surprised by the Indian, Pakistani, Libyan and North Korean nuclear programs. Further, my informants emphasized that the help that had been provided by the Kahn network was substantial and effective and that North Korea had provided technical support and on-the-ground assistance for missile development and for nuclear weapons development to both Syria and Iran. "You can't unring the scientific knowledge bell."

3. Iran's nuclear development program will trigger a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East. Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Syria will all begin nuclear weapons development programs. Saudi Arabia will also attempt to obtain nuclear weapons.

4. Islamic fundamentalists, in the name of Islamic religious purity, will seize control of one or more nuclear armed governments in the Middle East and thus, the fundamentalists will obtain access and control of one or more nuclear weapons. Prime candidates for such a seizure of control include Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

5. Most moderate Muslim groups will not resist this fundamentalist seizure of power, but will accept the fundamentalists control of governments and societies.

6. The various extremist groups will compete in burnishing their credentials as the most faithful (extreme) of the "true believers." The ultimate crown of truest believer will be accorded to the group that succeeds in destroying Israel.

7. Muslim casualties that would be caused by their nuclear attack on Israel or that would result from retaliatory attacks by Israel will not in any way deter these fundamentalist groups from attacking and attempting to destroy Israel.

8. There is nothing that Israel can do to avoid this fate. No concessions, no accommodations and no peace agreements will protect Israel.

Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (II, Part 1)

Additional lessons for Israel: "The future will be very much a repeat of the past."

1. Israel will never be able to locate a negotiating partner who will be willing to recognize Israel as a "Jewish state" and who will be able to effectively guarantee Israel peace and security "within recognized boundaries". Nearly all Islamic factions seek the political and physical elimination of the "Jewish state". This is the more immediate, absolute goal of Hezbollah, Hamas and the other rejectionist groups. For even the "moderates", the demise of Israel is the highly preferred outcome.

Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (II, Part 2)

2. Violence will continue. Violence and negotiations will be the twin tools employed (sometimes alternately, sometimes simultaneously) to sap Israel's emotional and economic strength. Arab violence does not just happen, nor is it merely the result of a "cycle of violence." The violence is planned and employed in order to create pandemonium, demonstrate the inability of Israel's government to defend the safety of Israel's citizens, make demands (such as for the release of prisoners), establish the group's reputation within Arab circles or on the world stage, cement relationships with other terrorist organizations, etc.

[Recorder's notes: Specific terror examples were described in detail in order to illustrate Palestian utilization of targeted violence. Several early operations ordered by Yassir Arafat and conducted by the Palestinian Liberation Organizaton (PLO) included: the Avivim school bus massacre (5/8/70); the Munich Olympic massacre (9/5/72); the Ma'alot school massacre (5/15/74). Arafat launched the second "Intifada" in the fall of 2000 to prevent President Clinton's peace process from having any chance of success. Arafat personally ordered and financed the purchase and importation of numerous shipments of weapons and explosives (including 50 tons of sniper rifles, machine guns, hand grenades, etc. from Iran - Karine A, 1/02) to be used for terror attacks against Israel. The Lod Airport massacre (5/30/72), an operation planned by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and conducted by the Japanese Red Army (JRA), illuminates that there is extensive international cooperation among terrorist organizations.]

Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (II, Part 3)

3. Israel's government (and the US and Western Europe) will be confounded by the continued use of traditional Middle East negotiating techniques, such as: a) present a long list of grievances and demands; b) use proxies, back channels, US allies and other third parties to pressure Israel to negotiate on only some of the Palestinian grievances and demands and also to pressure Israel to defer some of Israel's counter-demands (until some future negotiations); c) use proxies, back channels, off-the-record interviews, etc. to create the impression that the Palestinians are willing to make reciprocal concessions on one or more of Israel's major concerns, thus getting some elements in Israel and the US to conclude that completing a partial deal is nearly within reach; d) recess or terminate the negotiations; e) at that point, take off the table the concessions that were made by Israel and maintain that these offered concessions are merely the starting point for negotiations that will take place in the future; and f) then add to and extend the previous list of grievances and demands. The underlying rationale of this approach is: "If a person can be made to make one step backwards, then he can be made to take one thousand steps backwards."

Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (II, Part 4)

4. The Islamic world believes that there are many large divisions (fault lines) within Israel (between the political left and the political right, between the religious and the secular, between different orthodox groups, between various economic, social and ethnic groups, etc.) as well as between the national interests of Israel and the national interests of the US. The Arab world is also witness to much robust Jewish self-examination which tends to focus on Israel's historical and current flaws. Israel's government and most government officials, including Prime Minister Olmert, are viewed as weak, ineffective and unpopular. All of these factors are evaluated by the Palestinians as major vulnerabilities of Israel and as good sources of useful ammunition which will help them to undermine Israel's case for legitimacy and continued existence.

Thus, suggestions that Israel should offer certain concessions to the Palestinians which are floated by outside parties (especially suggestions that originate from groups within the Jewish community) will probably be interpreted by the Palestinian negotiators as a sign that Israel's resolve is weakening and these suggestions will most likely encourage the Palestinian negotiators to toughen their bargaining stance by making increased demands. This effect is described as "the bleat of the lamb excites the lion."

Israel's Future Through Moderate Islamic Eyes (II, Part 5)

5. The Palestinians (and Hezbollah) have already defeated Israel in the international public relations war.

a) The Palestinians have gained control of the reporting of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in the world media by gaining control of the words, phrases and definitions that the world media currently utilizes in describing underlying political, military and social conditions and in explaining their causation; in describing events on-the-ground; in presenting alternative negotiating positions; in evaluating proposed solutions; etc. Some examples include:

• occupation, occupying power, illegal occupation, brutal occupation;
• West Bank, occupied territories, Palestinian territories, Palestinian West Bank;
• militants (referring to those Palestinians committing acts of terror) rather than using the
term "terrorists";
• catastrophic economic conditions in Gaza caused by Israel's economic blockade, the
economic and health catastrophe now occurring in Gaza, collective punishment, high
unemployment rate which makes it difficult for Palestinians to feed their families, cuts
in electrical power distribution which greatly curtails factories, inability to run hospitals
due to the lack of electrical power and basic medical supplies;
• disproportionate response, innocent civilian casualties, women and children killed;
• military check-points that choke Palestinian development, daily humiliation, humiliate
Palestinian residents, prevent Palestinians from seeking medical care.

b) The Palestinian's usually get their version of the story out first and their spokespersons stay "on message." Even when, as is frequently the case, the Palestinian-issued accounts prove to be false, their story gains worldwide headlines. On the other hand, Israel's response pattern is to hold back until they can demonstrate the validity of their information. Then the Israeli story, if it's covered at all, is relegated at best to the inside pages of newspapers or to the tail end of TV news broadcasts.

[Recorder’s notes: Israel's government and media were criticized for Israel's ineptness in making its own case and in responding to various Palestinian and Hezbollah accusations, thus creating, by default, substantial victories for the Palestinian and Hezbollah public relations machines. Three of Israel's major public relations defeats were described in detail: 1) The Palestinian-generated fires that damaged the Church of the Nativity's interior during Israel's siege of Palestinian gunmen who had taken up positions inside the church; 2) The deaths of civilians (mostly women and children) when an apartment building in Kana, Lebanon collapsed several hours after an Israeli air attack on nearby Hezbollah missile firing positions; and 3) Israel's incursion into Jenin. The discussion of the world's media coverage of Israel's April, 2003 military incursion into Jenin was cited as the most illustrative: Palestinian spokespersons (Saeb Erekat, Yasser Abed Rabdo, Ahmed Abdel Rahman) claimed that Israel had carpet bombed and destroyed the entire Jenin camp, that Israel had massacred thousands (500 to 3000, "half of them women and children"), that the Israeli invasion army bulldozers had buried the "martyrs" in mass graves in order to conceal the massacre, and that 60 to 70 Palestinians had been summarily executed by the Israeli military. For several weeks, these and similar stories dominated the world news media and the editorial pages of much of the world press (Agence France Press, Associated Press, BBC, CBS, CNN, Deutsche Presse-Agentur, NBC, United Press International, United Nations press releases, etc.). Nearly two weeks elapsed before Israel began to respond: in fact, only about 10% of the buildings in the camp had been destroyed, nearly all due to the intense building-by-building, hand-to-hand combat that took place (this was confirmed by satellite photographs, interviews with PLO fighters and independent on-the-ground NGO observers); there had been no summary executions; the total Palestinian death toll was set at 56 (nearly all of them fighters) by the Palestinian medical authorities and was confirmed by Fatah's director for the Northern West Bank (Kadoura Mousa Kadoura). However, the early false stories of Palestinians killed and massive destruction still dominates the public's memory of the incident.]

c) The Palestinians (and Hezbollah) exercise extremely tight operational control over all media access in nearly all areas that are controlled by the Palestinians or Hezbollah. In order to obtain any information on events occurring in these areas, the western media is forced to rely nearly entirely on the inputs generated by local stringers (who are usually allied with the local extremist establishment). Should any member of the media report any "unfriendly information" then the reporter's physical safety is explicitly threatened and the reporters' organization will be threatened with denial of all future access. The western media, by continuing its presence in these areas, has demonstrated its willingness to comply with these restrictions on its reporting and it has also demonstrated that it will not reveal these restrictive and bias-inducing conditions to their audiences.

[Recorder’s notes: some of the news organizations that have readily accepted these Palestinian and Hezbollah demands were listed. However, since I do not have any independent ability to confirm this information, I did not include this list in these notes.]